Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
